Motivated to Move?
Now that Hurricanes Helene and Milton have ravaged countless homes on the Gulf Coast and across Central and South Florida, perennial post-storm questions are again being raised among beleaguered homeowners: Is now the time to get out for good? And for those who do decide to move, what will the real estate picture look like for people in search of new dwellings?
Frenzied Homeowners Flee
A number of frustrated Gulf Coast home and business owners have informed visiting news reporters they have had enough and are contemplating an exit from paradise. Overall, the hurricanes appear to have further dampened a once explosive real estate market already slowed by high mortgage rates and insurance costs, relegating a large potential buyer pool to the sidelines.
Real Estate’s Post-Storm Future
Despite the trauma, people in the real estate, financial, and property management industries are steadfast that the housing market’s post-storm future will be a rebound, mirroring others of the past: Floridians will continue to rebuild damaged communities, more single-family home and condo developments will be built in places roughed up by the storms, while prices, over the long term, will go up.
Economist’s Insights
Dr. Brad O’Connor, chief economist for Florida Realtors, the Orlando-based industry trade group, said it’s too early for data to show the degree to which the Gulf Coast area housing stock was damaged by Milton beyond repair, or whether buyers are moving into other regions of the state. But numbers from past storms, he suggested, have shown benign results.
"Temporary Lull in Sales"
"The general trend we found is that there never seems to be a statewide impact in the market," he said. There is usually a "temporary lull in sales" or "bump in the road in zones hit by storms.
Home Prices: Up or Down?
Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at the University of Mississippi who formerly worked at Florida Atlantic University, sees "no scenario under which we see home prices decline dramatically in Florida," despite the presence of distress sales.
"There is too strong a demand," he said. "That’s bad news for affordability. The size and scope of the Florida economy 30 years ago isn’t like the behemoth we see today. It’s just not retirement and hospitality anymore."
Motivated Sellers
When Milton was forecast as a Category 5 storm bearing winds of 160 mph and above, countless Gulf Coast residents got a taste of elsewhere as they heeded a chorus of warnings from federal, state, and local officials: "Get out!" The projected wind speeds were akin to those delivered by Hurricane Andrew, which 32 years ago leveled much of southern Dade County, driving thousands northward to settle in Broward County. The toll: 63,500 homes destroyed, 124,000 damaged for a total cost of $27.3 billion.
Changes in the Housing Market
Economists, consultants, and government officials don’t believe a mass migration will occur post-Helene and Milton. For Milton alone, AccuWeather offered a preliminary damage estimate of $160 billion to $180 billion.
Homeownership in Flux
Despite the trauma, people in the real estate, financial, and property management industries are steadfast that the housing market’s post-storm future will be a rebound, mirroring others of the past: Floridians will continue to rebuild damaged communities, more single-family home and condo developments will be built in places roughed up by the storms, while prices, over the long term, will go up.
Conclusion
In the face of repeated storms and a fragile housing market, decision-makers must balance the need for new construction with the imperative to build sustainably and resiliently. As the dust settles, the real estate industry will likely rebound, but the path forward will be shaped by the interplay of market forces, economic trends, and policy shifts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What will happen to the real estate market post-Helene and Milton?
The market will rebound, mirroring others of the past, with a focus on rebuilding damaged communities and creating more single-family home and condo developments in places roughed up by the storms.
Will home prices decline?
No, Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at the University of Mississippi, expects no scenario under which home prices decline dramatically in Florida, despite the presence of distress sales.
Will people move to other regions of the state?
Yes, according to Dr. Brad O’Connor, chief economist for Florida Realtors, some people may move to other regions, but it’s too early to tell.
