Kamala Harris won Orange County, but by a much tighter margin than either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020.
Donald Trump’s Gains
Donald Trump posted notable gains in Orange County during the November election, but it was not enough to win the increasingly purple county that has become a suburban battleground between Republicans and Democrats — and a reflection of the demographic political realignment unfolding across the nation.
Experts say the 2024 results offer some warning signs for Democrats.
“What the early numbers indicate is that Donald Trump made inroads with minority voters including probably substantial gains with Latino and Asian voters,” said Jeff Corless, a former strategist for Orange County Dist. Atty. Todd Spitzer. “What we’re hearing is that he made those same kinds of gains in other communities similar to Orange County across the country. He also made gains with traditional suburban voters, which he struggled with in 2020.”
Orange County has been turning bluer since 2012, but that trend faded in 2024
Harris won in Anaheim, Buena Park, La Habra and Santa Ana — but her advantage over Trump was 10 to 15 percentage points lower than Biden’s was in 2020.
Economic Factors
Michele Monda, a Republican who lives in the deep-blue city of Laguna Beach, voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 with her son and grandchildren in mind. The high housing costs and general lack of affordability have made it a challenge for middle-class couples, like her son and daughter-in-law, to build a life in many parts of California, including Orange County.
“Who is looking out for them?” Monda said. “They’re barely getting by, and quite honestly, the Democrats don’t seem to care. While I know Trump is a billionaire, I think he understands the needs of a middle-class person.”
Trump’s Popularity among Minorities
Trump’s popularity boost among Latinos and Asian Americans seen nationally could very well also be at play in swing counties such as Orange County. Republicans in the county for years have sought to attract Latinos and Asian Americans to their party with mixed success, and Trump’s performance could signal gains among these voter blocs, as well as Black Americans.
Democratic Turnout
Turnout in every city in the county was lower this year than in 2020.
The Democratic Party in Orange County has also slowed its registration efforts.
Between October 2022 and October 2024, the Democratic Party in Orange County grew by just over 3,100 voters. At the same time, the Republican Party’s numbers swelled by 31,000 people, according to data from the California secretary of state.
Conclusion
The results of the 2024 election in Orange County show that Trump made gains among minority voters and traditional suburban voters, which could signal a shift in the county’s political landscape. While Democrats still won the majority of votes in the county, Trump’s performance could indicate a changing tide in the battleground county.
FAQs
Q: What was the outcome of the 2024 election in Orange County?
A: Kamala Harris won Orange County, but by a much tighter margin than either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020.
Q: What were the reasons behind Trump’s gains in Orange County?
A: Experts say Trump made inroads with minority voters, including probably substantial gains with Latino and Asian voters, and with traditional suburban voters.
Q: Did Trump’s popularity boost among minorities contribute to his gains in Orange County?
A: Yes, Trump’s popularity boost among Latinos and Asian Americans seen nationally could also be at play in swing counties such as Orange County.
Q: What was the impact of Democratic turnout on the election results?
A: Turnout in every city in the county was lower this year than in 2020, and the Democratic Party in Orange County slowed its registration efforts.
Q: What does the outcome of the election in Orange County signal for the future of the county’s political landscape?
A: The results could indicate a changing tide in the battleground county, with Trump’s performance potentially signaling gains for the Republican Party among minority voters and traditional suburban voters.
