Introduction to the Unlikely NBA Draft Lottery Wins
The ping pong balls bounced the Dallas Mavericks’ way in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. The Mavericks bolted to the top of the 2025 NBA Draft board thanks to one of the most unlikely draft lottery wins in event history.
Dallas, which was eliminated in the play-in tournament following a much-maligned midseason trade of Luka Doncic, entered the lottery with the 11th-best odds of landing the coveted No. 1 overall pick at 1.8%. The Mavs owned just 18 of the 1,001 possible four-digit combinations for the lottery drawing.
The Winning Combination
The winning combination of ping-pong balls that earned Dallas the #1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft: 10, 14, 11, 7.
The Mavericks became just the fourth team with less than 2% odds to win the No. 1 pick since the weighted lottery system debuted in 1990.
Historical Context of Unlikely Wins
The biggest lottery miracle came back in 1993. After winning the Shaquille O’Neal sweepstakes with the second-best odds in the 1992 lottery, the Orlando Magic came into the 1993 event with the worst odds at 1.52%. But Orlando jumped from No. 11 to No. 1, becoming the first franchise to win consecutive lotteries. The Magic selected Chris Webber first overall in 1993 and then promptly traded him to the Golden State Warriors for No. 3 pick Penny Hardaway and several future first-rounders.
Other Notable Unlikely Wins
There are two teams that have won the lottery with 1.7% odds. The Chicago Bulls in 2008 went from ninth to first before selecting hometown prospect Derrick Rose. And one year after claiming the 2013 No. 1 pick with the third-best odds, the Cleveland Cavaliers went back-to-back in 2014 by winning it with the ninth-best odds. Cleveland then used No. 1 pick on Andrew Wiggins and dealt him less than two months later to the Minnesota Timberwolves in a trade for Kevin Love.
Ranking the Most Unlikely Draft Lottery Wins
Here’s a full look at the most unlikely draft lottery wins of all time, according to RealGM, along with the players who were selected:
- 1993, Orlando Magic: 1.52% — Chris Webber
- T-2. 2008, Chicago Bulls: 1.7% — Derrick Rose
- T-2. 2014, Cleveland Cavaliers: 1.7% — Andrew Wiggins
- 2025, Dallas Mavericks: 1.8% — TBD
- 2011, Cleveland Cavaliers (via Clippers): 2.8% — Kyrie Irving
- 2024, Atlanta Hawks: 3% — Zaccharie Risacher
- 2000, New Jersey Nets: 4.4% — Kenyon Martin
- 2007, Portland Trail Blazers: 5.3% — Greg Oden
- 2019, New Orleans Pelicans: 6% — Zion Williamson
- 2005, Milwaukee Bucks: 6.3% — Andrew Bogut
- 2006, Toronto Raptors: 8.8% — Andrea Bargnani
- 2002, Houston Rockets: 8.9% — Yao Ming
- 1995, Golden State Warriors: 9.4% — Joe Smith
Conclusion
The NBA Draft Lottery has provided many unexpected twists over the years, with several teams winning the top pick against significant odds. These instances remind us of the unpredictability and excitement surrounding the NBA draft process.
FAQs
- Q: What were the odds of the Dallas Mavericks winning the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery?
A: The Mavericks had 1.8% odds of winning the No. 1 pick. - Q: Which team had the lowest odds of winning the lottery and still managed to get the first pick?
A: The Orlando Magic in 1993 had the worst odds at 1.52% and won the lottery. - Q: How many teams have won the lottery with less than 2% odds?
A: Four teams have achieved this, including the Dallas Mavericks in 2025.
