Major Atmospheric River Storm Barreling Toward California
Storm Expected to Bring Heavy Rainfall and Flooding
A major atmospheric river storm is barreling toward California, threatening to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to the region. According to the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, the storm is expected to be the strongest of the winter so far, with a 60% chance of rainfall of 2 to 4 inches or more along the coast and in valleys, and 4 to 8 inches or more in the mountains and foothills.
Rainfall Amounts and Timing
The storm is expected to start as early as Tuesday night or as late as Thursday evening, with the highest threat expected between Wednesday night and Thursday night. For Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, there is a 60% chance of high amounts of rain falling between February 12 and 14, which raises the risk of debris flow and mudslides.
Debris Flow and Mudslides
Rainfall rates of half an inch to an inch or more per hour are capable of causing significant debris flows, in which water can pick up mud, rocks, branches, and sometimes massive boulders, traveling at speeds exceeding 35 mph. The recent burn area of the 2024 Lake fire, which scorched 38,664 acres in the Santa Barbara County mountains north of Los Olivos, is at high risk for debris flow and mudslides.
Extreme Rainfall Scenario
In the extreme rainfall scenario, which has a 20% chance of happening in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, forecasters estimate that there could be 4 to 8 inches of rain on the coast and in the valleys. This would be a “pretty extreme” event, according to Ryan Kittell, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Oxnard.
Regional Impacts
The storm is also expected to have impacts on other regions, including the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills, where travel may be affected by heavy rain and snow. The Sierra Nevada could see 2 or more feet of snow, and areas around the elevation of Lake Tahoe could see “their largest snow event so far this season.” The San Francisco Bay Area could be at moderate risk for flooding and tree damage between Wednesday and Friday.
Conclusion
The upcoming storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to California, with the potential for extreme rainfall in some areas. Residents are advised to prepare for the worst-case scenario and to keep track of the weather forecast for updates on the storm’s track and intensity.
FAQs
Q: What is the expected rainfall amount in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties?
A: There is a 60% chance of high amounts of rain falling between February 12 and 14, with potential rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches or more along the coast and in valleys, and 4 to 8 inches or more in the mountains and foothills.
Q: What is the risk of debris flow and mudslides in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties?
A: The risk of debris flow and mudslides is high, especially in areas with recent burn scars, such as the 2024 Lake fire.
Q: What is the expected impact of the storm on the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills?
A: Travel may be affected by heavy rain and snow in the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills, with potential snowfall amounts of 2 or more feet in the Sierra Nevada.
Q: What is the expected impact of the storm on the San Francisco Bay Area?
A: The San Francisco Bay Area could be at moderate risk for flooding and tree damage between Wednesday and Friday.