Introduction to Gentrification and Transit
The northern tip of the Vermont Square neighborhood in South Los Angeles gentrified in many of the usual ways over the last decade. Median incomes shot up. The neighborhood’s share of Black residents declined. On the list of fastest growing home prices across the region, Vermont Square cracked the top ten. Along Western Avenue, new apartment buildings popped up as visible markers of change. But there is a less obvious, if no less profound, marker: Fewer people began riding the bus.
The Impact of Rising Rents on Transit Ridership
Between 2012 and 2017, public transit ridership fell in this Census designated tract — a roughly half-square mile neighborhood spanning Western — by 24%. In that same period, the neighborhood-wide rent increased by an average of $468 per month. That, according to UCLA researchers, is probably not a coincidence. A study published late last year compared changes in transit ridership numbers to rental market trends in neighborhoods across Los Angeles and Orange counties. It found that in neighborhoods well-served by buses and trains, transit ridership tended to fall in places where the rents were rising.
At the south end of Chinatown, average rents went up $379 and transit use fell by 21%. In a sliver of Pacoima in the San Fernando Valley, rent was up $305, ridership was down 28%. Across the region, a neighborhood-wide rental hike of an extra $230 per month predicted a 22% decline in bus and train boardings. The most likely explanation, according to the researchers, is that as dense urban neighborhoods grow more costly, lower- and moderate-income renters, the very people most likely to ride the bus, are pushed out and replaced by a more affluent set who, on the whole, tend to favor getting around by car.
Twin Crises: Housing and Transit
California’s public bus and rail agencies are in a decade-long slump. For that, there’s plenty of blame to go around. COVID-19 steered commuters away from crowded buses and train cars and ridership numbers have yet to fully recover. Federal rescue funding passed by Congress in 2020 and 2021 propped up these systems for a time but has now mostly dried up. Inflation, supply chain snags and now tariffs have made the cost of maintaining aging, legacy infrastructure even costlier. Even before the pandemic-era tumult, the advent of rideshare apps and a steady nationwide rise in car ownership rates resulted in a slow and steady decline of transit ridership.
The UCLA study points to yet another culprit behind the state’s public transit woes: California’s housing affordability crisis. “The basic premise of the paper is, ‘Can rising rents help explain why you’re losing transit ridership?’ And it seems to be that they can, because they reduce the likelihood that very high transit riders will live near transit stops,” said urban planning professor Michael Manville, lead author of the paper.
The Consequences of Displacement
Manville and his fellow researchers weren’t able to track where displaced transit riders wound up. But given the relatively few number of transit-friendly neighborhoods in the Los Angeles and Orange County metro area, it’s likely most settled in neighborhoods with fewer public transportation options. Some may have felt compelled to lease or buy a car, at considerable expense to their own finances and to the environment. For others, unwilling or unable to incur that expense, being priced out of a neighborhood with steady bus and rail service might simply mean having fewer travel options.
That latter outcome might be more likely these days. The study uses data collected before the pandemic. Now, with higher interest rates, higher ride-share costs and higher auto prices — which could sail higher still if high tariffs remain in place — “you might actually see people not being able to switch to driving as much,” said Manville. Instead, displaced renters may simply be forced to move and rely on “transit in neighborhoods where the transit isn’t as good.”
Will California Beef Up Housing Near Transit?
That double-whammy is top of mind for many legislators in Sacramento this year. San Francisco Sen. Scott Wiener, a Democrat and prominent author of bills to boost housing production and support public transit agencies, is pushing legislation this year that is supposed to do both. Senate Bill 79 would allow for dense apartment construction around major public transit stops, including on land owned by transit agencies.
“If we’re going to make big public investments in public transportation, which of course I support and I know many of us support, we need to make sure that people can actually live near those stations and ride on those trains or those high-quality bus lines,” Wiener said at a legislative hearing late last month.
Conclusion
The story of Vermont Square, and hundreds of other similar neighborhoods across the region, shows that California’s housing crisis is also making its transit crisis harder to solve. The findings suggest gentrification isn’t just bad for residents displaced by rising rents and scarce affordable units: It’s also bad for the transit systems those displaced residents rely upon. Fewer transportation options have been found to put a person at risk of higher unemployment, poorer health and more pronounced social isolation.
FAQs
- Q: What is gentrification, and how does it affect transit ridership?
A: Gentrification is the process of wealthier, more affluent individuals moving into previously low-income neighborhoods, driving up housing costs and displacing long-time residents. This displacement can lead to a decrease in transit ridership as lower-income residents, who are more likely to use public transportation, are forced to move to areas with fewer transit options. - Q: How does the housing affordability crisis contribute to the decline of public transit?
A: The housing affordability crisis contributes to the decline of public transit by pricing out lower- and moderate-income renters, who are more likely to use public transportation, and replacing them with more affluent individuals who are less likely to use transit. - Q: What is Senate Bill 79, and how does it aim to address the housing and transit crises?
A: Senate Bill 79 aims to allow for dense apartment construction around major public transit stops, including on land owned by transit agencies, in an effort to increase housing production and support public transit agencies. - Q: What are the potential consequences of not addressing the housing and transit crises?
A: The potential consequences of not addressing the housing and transit crises include increased unemployment, poorer health, and more pronounced social isolation for individuals who are priced out of neighborhoods with reliable public transportation options.
