Introduction to the Storm
A wintry storm could dump significant rain and snow on portions of California, bringing damaging winds and flash floods to parts of Southern California, especially in and around burn scars, the National Weather Service has warned.
Storm Predictions
Here’s what forecasters are predicting, although they caution the situation is evolving and subject to change.
Monday into Tuesday
The core of the storm, which is expected to bring the most damaging impacts, is predicted to move through San Francisco and Santa Barbara counties starting Monday evening and probably will reach Ventura and Los Angeles counties after midnight, said Ryan Kittell, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. Those areas may see light showers before and after the core moves through, he said.
Rainfall and Thunderstorms
Peak rates of 0.25 to 0.5 of an inch of rain per hour are possible, with total accumulations of 0.75 to 1.5 inches for coastal and valley areas and 1.5 to 3 inches in the mountains, according to the weather service. Severe thunderstorms could also bring more intense downpours in some places, as well as heavy winds that could take down trees and power lines, forecasters cautioned.
Risks of Strong Winds and Tornadoes
“The setup for the storm is similar to storms in the past that have produced thunderstorms that created pretty strong winds and even a weak tornado or two,” Kittell said. “And while it’s really hard to say for certain that this will happen over the course of the next 24 hours, it’s an appreciable risk for isolated storms to produce impacts like that.”
Flood Watches and Evacuation Warnings
Starting at 8 p.m. Monday, a flood watch is in effect for areas in and near recent burn scars in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties. The scars are from the Gifford, Madre, Lake, Apache, Mountain, Post, King, Canyon, Hughes, Hurst, Kenneth, Franklin, Palisades, Sunset, Lidia, Hawk, Eaton and Bridge fires that burned over the last two years. The flood watch is in effect through 3 p.m. Tuesday. Debris flows are also possible.
Evacuation Warnings for Los Angeles
The city of Los Angeles issued evacuation warnings for some communities near the burn scars from the Palisades fire, as well as the Hurst fire in Sylmar and the Sunset fire in the Hollywood Hills. The warning is in effect from 10 p.m. Monday to 6 a.m. Wednesday. Los Angeles police officers will visit high-risk homes in those communities to provide the warning, and the Los Angeles Fire Department will have augmented staffing during the storm, said Capt. Erik Scott, a Fire Department spokesman.
Flooding in Urban Areas
Flooding may also take place in urban areas, areas with poor drainage and low-water crossings, forecasters said.
Additional Flood Watches
The National Weather Service also issued a flood watch for burn scars in the San Bernardino County Mountains, Santa Ana Mountains and foothills and inland areas of Orange County from late Monday until Tuesday afternoon. Burn scars include those from the Bridge, Line, Apple, El Dorado and Airport fires that burned over the last five years.
Rainfall Rates
Forecasters are predicting rainfall rates of 0.3 to 0.7 inches per hour in those areas.
Wind Advisory
For much of the high desert, including Apple Valley and Lucerne Valley, the San Gorgonio Pass near Banning, the Antelope Valley and the Morongo Basin, a wind advisory is in effect until 11 p.m. Tuesday, with gusts of up to 45 mph expected.
Storm Impacts in Northern California
Farther north along the Central Coast and in the Central Sierra, the heaviest portion of the storm is expected to hit from 11 p.m. Monday through 5 a.m. Tuesday, said Emily Wilson, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Hanford.
Snow Levels and Accumulations
Snow levels are expected to drop to 6,000 feet, with accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from 7,000 to 8,000 feet and 1 to 2 feet above 9,000 feet. At lower elevations, hourly rain rates could range from 0.2 to 0.3 inches per hour, she said.
Flood Watches and Winter Storm Warnings
A flood watch is in effect from 5 p.m. Monday through Tuesday afternoon for rural and mountainous areas like Camp Nelson, Coarsegold, Oakhurst, Kernville, Fish Camp, Lake Isabella, North Fork, Auberry, Bass Lake and Yosemite Valley. A winter storm warning is in effect until 5 p.m. Wednesday for some communities near Yosemite National Park and Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks, as well as on the Eastern Sierra slopes.
Tuesday into Wednesday
Showers may linger, but by Tuesday afternoon the most damaging impacts from the storms are expected to be over.
Cooler Temperatures and Freeze Watch
Cooler temperatures are expected throughout the state to last into Thursday, followed by a warming trend.
First Freeze of the Fall Season
The first freeze of the fall season is expected for the Owens Valley, with overnight lows dropping to between 27 and 32 degrees. A freeze watch is in effect through Wednesday morning for Bishop, Independence, Lone Pine and Olancha.
Conclusion
The incoming wintry storm is expected to bring significant rain and snow to portions of California, with damaging winds and flash floods possible in some areas. Residents are advised to stay informed and follow evacuation warnings and flood watches closely.
FAQs
Q: What areas are under flood watch?
A: Areas in and near recent burn scars in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties, as well as burn scars in the San Bernardino County Mountains, Santa Ana Mountains and foothills and inland areas of Orange County.
Q: What are the expected rainfall rates?
A: Peak rates of 0.25 to 0.5 of an inch of rain per hour are possible, with total accumulations of 0.75 to 1.5 inches for coastal and valley areas and 1.5 to 3 inches in the mountains.
Q: Are there any evacuation warnings in effect?
A: Yes, the city of Los Angeles has issued evacuation warnings for some communities near the burn scars from the Palisades fire, as well as the Hurst fire in Sylmar and the Sunset fire in the Hollywood Hills.
Q: What are the expected snow levels and accumulations?
A: Snow levels are expected to drop to 6,000 feet, with accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from 7,000 to 8,000 feet and 1 to 2 feet above 9,000 feet.
