Commentary: Trump promised lower food prices immediately, but I gave him six weeks. Here’s my grocery bill.

Why I tracked my grocery bill

On Jan. 19, the last day of the Joe Biden presidency, I went to my neighborhood supermarket and priced 28 items, including milk, eggs, bacon, and potatoes.

Six weeks into the second Donald Trump presidency, I went back to the same store and priced the same items.

Why? Because during the last presidential election, voters repeatedly complained about the economy and singled out the high cost of groceries.

With good reason. Inflation is a killer, and anybody who’s gone shopping in recent years is well aware that in a supermarket, your money doesn’t go as far as it once did. Breakfast, lunch, and dinner all cost more than they used to.

Trump’s promise

Trump smartly hammered away at that reality as a candidate.

“A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper,” he said on the campaign trail.

And how long did he say it would take to turn things around?

“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day 1,” Trump promised.

A reality check

You didn’t need a doctorate in economics to know that was unlikely to happen. Markets are more complicated than that, and prices can swing on multiple factors beyond the control of an elected official.

But it wasn’t uncommon to hear voters cite the price of groceries as a pivotal issue for them, and among those who said inflation in general was the most important issue, two-thirds voted for Trump, according to one survey.

A six-week experiment

I decided to put Trump’s promise to the test. I went to my local supermarket, Vons in Eagle Rock, and priced 28 items, including milk, eggs, bacon, and potatoes. Six weeks later, I went back to the same store and priced the same items again.

The results

Of the 28 items, 24 were the same price, to the penny, on Jan. 19 and March 3. Four items had different prices.

The Thomas’ bagels, six to a bag, went from $5.79 to $5.89.

A dozen Lucerne Grade AA large eggs went from $7.49 to $9.99.

An 8.9-ounce box of Cheerios went from $5.99 to $5.29.

And navel oranges went from $1.29 a pound to $.99.

The total tab when Biden was president – $146.03.

The Trump total – $147.63.

Expert analysis

U.C. Davis professor Daniel A. Sumner says “the best thing to do is raise consumer incomes.” The problem “is not food prices, it’s food prices relative to people’s incomes.”

Michigan State professor David L. Ortega, a food economist, said a U.S. president has little direct control over grocery prices, “especially in the short term.”

“The reason there’s been such a sharp rise over the past four years is that a convergence of factors impacted supply and demand, including COVID, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, significant drought, and bird flu outbreaks,” Ortega said, adding that climate change has also had a significant impact on food production.

One way a president can influence prices is to create more stability, Ortega said.

But the opposite is happening, with Trump rolling out tariffs, deportations, and cuts to federal agencies that monitor food safety and the spread of viruses.

“Even the threat of some of these policies” can be inflationary, Ortega said, “because companies are scrambling, trying to come up with contingency plans for where they might source products or find labor.”

Conclusion

This exercise was not meant to be a comprehensive study of the economy or Trump’s policies, but rather a simple, if unscientific, test of his promise to bring down food prices immediately. The results are clear: six weeks in, the cost of groceries has not decreased, and in some cases, has increased.

FAQs

Q: What were the items you priced?

A: I priced 28 items, including milk, eggs, bacon, potatoes, and other everyday groceries.

Q: How did you record your prices?

A: I recorded the regular prices, not the discounted member prices, because not everyone is a member.

Q: What are your thoughts on the results?

A: While this experiment was not meant to be a comprehensive study, it does suggest that Trump’s promise of immediate price drops may not be realistic, and that other factors, such as supply and demand, have a greater impact on food prices.