Antiabortion States Face Brain Drain and Population Loss
New Research Highlights Demographic Consequences of Abortion Bans
New research has validated that prediction and put meat on its bones. Most notably, economists at Georgia Tech reported in a paper published this month that by mid-2023, the 13 states with total bans had suffered a combined net loss of an estimated 36,000 residents per quarter, or more than 144,000 per year.
A Significant Population Loss
Over two years, that amounts to a net loss of more than one-third of a percent of the combined population of about 80 million in the 13 states with abortion bans.
Over time, the trend could result in a population 1% lower than it would have been if the abortion bans weren’t in place. That should be enough to catch the attention of lawmakers in those states because of its potential to negate programs aimed at luring workers and families.
The Effect Is More Pronounced Among Single-Person Households
The effect was more pronounced among single-person households than families, the researchers found. That suggests “an outsized influence of reproductive rights on younger, more mobile populations,” they wrote — possibly because the logistics of moving a family are more burdensome than for single persons, and also that single people may be more likely to be women of childbearing age.
Reproductive Rights Alter the Relative Attractiveness of Locations
“State abortion policies alter the relative attractiveness of locations and the geographic distribution of human capital,” the paper concludes.
A Brain Drain in the Works
Applications from medical students for residency positions in obstetrics and gynecology in abortion-banning states fell 11.7% in 2023 from the previous year, and by another 6.7% in 2024, according to the Assn. of American Medical Colleges.
The Consequences Are Far-Reaching
The reasons aren’t hard to fathom. For one thing, OB/GYN residency programs can’t be accredited unless they provide clinical experience in abortion care. That might be impossible in abortion-ban states, though programs can arrange for that training to be delivered in other states. Living and working in a state where routine medical treatments might expose them to criminal prosecution, stiff prison terms, fines, the loss of medical licenses and lawsuits, moreover, can’t be appealing to physicians considering where to apply for training and open their practices.
A Coalition of Businesses Speaks Out
A coalition of 39 Texas businesses made that point in a friend-of-the-court brief to the Texas Supreme Court in 2023, while the court pondered the state’s abortion ban. (The court upheld the ban.) The ban and related restrictions on medical care were not only increasing businesses’ costs but “driving away top talent, risking potential future business coming to the State, and threatening a diverse workforce,” the plaintiffs stated.
The Consequences Are Felt Across Multiple Sectors
The effects of abortion bans are not limited to the healthcare sector. Businesses also have complained that abortion bans raise their costs, because they have to offer better healthcare benefits to recruits to counteract the reduction in reproductive health benefits and have to commit themselves to paying for out-of-state travel for affected workers and their family members.
A Conclusion and Future Directions
The implications for state policymakers should be plain — if they don’t allow antiabortion ideology to outweigh social and economic realities. Among other factors, well-educated and socially aware people are likely to be more attentive to reproductive healthcare rights.
FAQs
Q: What are the 13 states with total abortion bans?
A: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Q: What is the significance of the Georgia Tech study?
A: The study highlights the demographic consequences of abortion bans, including a significant population loss and a brain drain in certain sectors, particularly healthcare.
Q: What is the impact on businesses?
A: Abortion bans can increase costs for businesses, particularly those that rely on recruiting top talent or providing reproductive health benefits to their employees.
Q: What is the implication for state policymakers?
A: State policymakers should consider the social and economic realities of reproductive healthcare rights, rather than allowing antiabortion ideology to dictate policy.
