Measure to Double Homeless Sales Tax Gains Ground in New Poll
A measure on the November ballot that would double the county’s quarter-percent homeless sales tax is edging closer to the majority it would need to pass in a new poll of likely Los Angeles County voters.
Survey Results
Those saying they would vote for the measure outnumbered those opposing by 49% to 33% in a survey taken in late September, widening its lead by 5 percentage points over responses to an earlier poll. In August, 47% of likely voters said they would vote yes and 36% no. The percentage of voters who were undecided remained at 17%.
Margin of Error
The differences, however, fell within the margins of error of the two surveys. The poll, conducted between Sept. 25 and Oct. 1 by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times, had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Expert Analysis
“When I look at 49% yes in the current poll and 47% in the August poll, in a statistical sense, there really hasn’t been much change,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll.
The new survey reinforces his conclusion that the race is close, DiCamillo said.
Campaign Efforts
Proponents of Measure A have raised about $4 million to promote it, and their campaign is just ramping up, said Tommy Newman, vice president of public affairs for United Way of Greater Los Angeles, one of the measure’s main backers.
In speaking with voters, the campaign has found those still undecided receptive to the message that services and housing assistance would be at risk for tens of thousands of people if Measure H were not replaced.
Demographics
The survey showed that Measure A fares better among the young — with 56% in support among those younger than 40 — and the liberal, with 71% in favor. Those earning less than $40,000 annually were most supportive of the issue, with 57% in favor, 37% opposed and only 6% undecided.
The most striking differential was the gender gap. Women favored the measure 60% to only 22% against, while men opposed it with 47% against and 37% in favor.
Conclusion
The results of the survey suggest that Measure A is gaining ground, but the race is still close. The campaign’s efforts to promote the measure and address concerns about its effectiveness will be crucial in the coming weeks. A final poll will be conducted near the end of October, and if the measure is above 50%, its chances for passage will be good.
FAQs
Q: What is Measure A?
A: Measure A is a measure on the November ballot that would double the county’s quarter-percent homeless sales tax to fund homeless services and housing development.
Q: What are the key components of Measure A?
A: Measure A would repeal Measure H, a quarter-percent sales tax approved by voters in 2017, and replace it with a half-percent sales tax expected to generate more than $1 billion annually. The new measure would expand the use of that money by earmarking funds to homelessness prevention and housing development.
Q: What are the concerns about Measure A?
A: Some voters are concerned that the funds generated by Measure A will not be effective in addressing homelessness.
Q: What are the demographics of support for Measure A?
A: The survey showed that Measure A fares better among the young, liberal, and those earning less than $40,000 annually. Women also favor the measure more than men, with 60% to 22% against.
Q: What are the implications of the poll results?
A: The results suggest that Measure A is gaining ground, but the race is still close. The campaign’s efforts to promote the measure and address concerns about its effectiveness will be crucial in the coming weeks.
