Introduction to Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina remains etched in history as a devastating storm whose catastrophic surge triggered widespread flooding and a humanitarian crisis. The director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, Michael Brennan, Ph.D., tells us why Hurricane Katrina was so devastating, and what we’ve learned about forecasting since 2005.
How Hurricane Forecasting Has Changed Since Hurricane Katrina
Since then, hurricane forecasting has undergone a dramatic transformation, and in the words of the National Hurricane Center, it has evolved "in almost every way imaginable." Michael Brennan, the director of the National Hurricane Center, told LiveNOW from FOX that the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the 2005 hurricane season spurred the development of a whole new generation of hurricane forecasting modeling. "All the tools we have are better now than they were 20 years ago," Brennan told LiveNOW from FOX. "We have better satellite imagery, we have better observations, we take the observations we get from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, and we can get them into the forecast models."
Advances in Forecasting Models
Forecasting models including the HWRF and HMON were developed to simulate the inner cores of hurricanes. These models will be retired and decommissioned by NOAA in favor of the next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS). "Our intensity forecast errors now are 40 to 50 percent less than they were at the time of Katrina 20 years ago, and we actually now have the ability to try to forecast some of that rapid intensification that we saw happen at that time," Brennan said, noting that forecasters didn’t have the ability to forecast the rapid strengthening of storms, but are now making some significant progress in the area now.
How Forecasting Storm Surge Has Changed
According to the National Weather Service in New Orleans, the devastation caused by the storm surge of Hurricane Katrina resulted in one of the largest displacements of a population since the Great Depression. Brennan told LiveNOW from FOX that researchers have additionally come a long way in forecasting storm surge, the magnitude of storm surge and how deep the water can get. "We have high-resolution mapping that shows people how high the water could get above ground level. And that’s really a lot of that was started in the aftermath of Katrina and realized the need to focus on that storm surge predictability aspect," he explained.
Improvements in Storm Surge Modeling
The resolution of the modeling has also improved, giving insight into the symmetry and topography of the land, and thus, revealing what the storm surge risk looks like for a given community. "And that’s really the first step into people being prepared, whether it’s at the individual level, where do you wanna build your home? Where do you want to live? Do you need some type of insurance? All the way up to the community level and what kind of protections need to be taken by communities or states," he added.
What Happened During Hurricane Katrina?
Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm with winds near 125 mph when it slammed into the New Orleans area on Aug. 29, 2005. Those winds pushed storm surge of between 10 and 30 feet in the region ashore. All that water overtopped or breached levees meant to protect New Orleans. In the original post-storm report issued in the months that followed Katrina, NHC officials said deaths from the storm were estimated to be more than 1,800. A majority of those deaths – 341 – happened in Louisiana, and most of those people were over the age of 60.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Hurricane Katrina was a devastating storm that led to significant advancements in hurricane forecasting and storm surge modeling. The National Hurricane Center has made tremendous progress in improving the accuracy of forecasting models, including the development of the next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS). Additionally, researchers have made significant improvements in forecasting storm surge, which has helped to better prepare communities for the risks associated with hurricanes. As we continue to learn from past storms like Hurricane Katrina, we can work towards creating more effective early warning systems and reducing the risk of damage and loss of life from these powerful storms.
