Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton Leads in Republican Primary Poll
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading in a new poll for the Republican primary, with a significant advantage over incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. The poll, conducted by Texan Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, shows Paxton ahead of Cornyn by 9 percentage points in a two-person race and by 7 points if U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston enters the primary.
Paxton’s Lead in the Republican Primary
According to Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute and co-author of the survey, Paxton is a strong favorite in the Republican primary. "Right now, if it’s a head-to-head race between Paxton and Cornyn, Paxton is a very strong favorite, and it’s tough to see how, absent, say, a Trump endorsement of Cornyn, Cornyn could effectively flip the table on Paxton," Jones said.
General Election Matchups
However, Paxton’s lead drops significantly in hypothetical matchups against Democratic rivals. In a matchup against Democratic Congressman Joaquin Castro of San Antonio, Paxton’s lead is only 3 points, and against former Dallas Congressman Colin Allred, his lead is just 2 points. This puts either Democrat within striking distance of victory. In contrast, Cornyn and Hunt lead either Democrat by larger margins.
Implications for the General Election
Jones notes that Paxton’s history of marital infidelity and corruption charges may not hurt him among Republican primary voters, but it could be a significant liability in the general election. "Going into November, Paxton is likely to be the weakest candidate Republicans could put forward, and either Cornyn or Hunt would be the strongest candidate," Jones said. If Paxton were to face a well-funded Democratic candidate, particularly in a scenario where President Donald Trump is seen as performing poorly and the economy is struggling, his record could hurt him badly.
Potential Consequences for the Republican Party
Paxton’s vulnerability in the general election could have significant consequences for the Republican Party. If he were to win the primary, the party might find itself facing a difficult battle to hold onto the Senate seat. As Jones pointed out, instead of facing a Democratic rival with limited funds, Paxton would likely face a well-funded opponent with $50-$75 million to spend, either themselves or through supporting groups.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is currently leading in the Republican primary poll, his advantage may not translate to the general election. His history of controversy and corruption charges could hurt him significantly in a matchup against a well-funded Democratic candidate. The Republican Party may need to consider the potential consequences of nominating Paxton and whether he is the strongest candidate to hold onto the Senate seat.
