Hurricane Season Forecast
The National Weather Service (NWS) has predicted an "above average season" for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, with up to five major hurricanes expected to form before the end of November. This forecast is based on the latest data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
What to Expect
The NWS is predicting between 5-9 hurricanes, with 2-5 of them being category 3 or higher, meaning wind speeds greater than 110 miles per hour. Additionally, 13-18 named storms are expected throughout the season, with four already formed: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. Tropical Storm Chantal was the only storm to make landfall so far, bringing deadly floods to North Carolina.
Preparation is Key
Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster for the NWS, emphasizes the need for preparedness before a storm hits. "It’s knowing your risk," Rosencrans said. "So if you’re near the immediate coastline, storm surge, flooding, and winds. If you’re a little bit inland, it’s really that heavy rain threat. … Get your kit ready. Make a plan." He also urges Texans to monitor reliable weather reports from sources like hurricanes.gov and the NWS forecast office for the Houston and Galveston region.
Threats Posed by Hurricanes
The main threats brought by a hurricane are storm surge, high winds, and heavy rain, which can come from storms at various levels of severity. John Nielson-Gammon, the state climatologist and a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M, said, "Generally speaking, it doesn’t really matter what the forecast is, because you only care about the one hurricane that may or may not make landfall close to where you are." To prepare, Texans can check their home’s vulnerability to flooding through FEMA’s flood map service center.
Staffing Challenges
The updated forecast comes at a turbulent time for the National Weather Service, which has lost around 600 employees in previous months following layoffs and widespread acceptance of early retirement or federal buyout offers. However, the Trump administration has reversed course and will permit the rehiring of up to 450 positions at the agency. Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employee Organization, said the rehiring decision is a major achievement for the agency and the Trump administration.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the hurricane season forecast predicts an above-average season with up to five major hurricanes expected to form before the end of November. It is essential for individuals to be prepared and have a plan in place in case of a storm. By monitoring reliable weather reports and taking necessary precautions, Texans can stay safe and minimize the risks associated with hurricanes. The National Weather Service is working to restaff critically understaffed offices across the United States, which will help improve flood predictions, weather forecasts, and aviation advisories.
