Saturday, November 8, 2025

Tropical System in Gulf Has 40% Chance of Becoming Cyclone

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National Weather Service

The National Weather Service office for the Houston and Galveston region is monitoring a low-pressure disturbance over the Gulf that has a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression as it tracks westward, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of Wednesday morning, the system had moved west from Florida into the Gulf. Kaylee Adams, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Houston/Galveston office, said Tuesday afternoon it was expected to approach the coast of Louisiana on Thursday.

“Right now, it’s producing disorganized showers and thunderstorm activity,” Adams said. “Once it reaches the northeastern Gulf on Wednesday, we could see developments into a tropical depression.”

RELATED: NOAA predicts 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be ‘above normal’

Regardless of how the system develops, the National Weather Service said in a Wednesday morning update that “a surge of tropical moisture could enhance the risk of showers and thunderstorms” in Southeast Texas by the end of the week. The highest rain chances are on Friday, when the Galveston Bay region is at risk for “excessive rainfall capable of localized flooding.”

There are several factors being monitored that could affect the weather system’s future development, Adams said.

“If we have too much wind shear, it can shred apart the system,” she said. “We are also looking at a very moist tropical environment, so right now we’ve been hearing a lot about that Saharan dust, which would create a lot of dry air and inhibit any formation. That dust doesn’t look to be impacting it as it’s moving into the Gulf of Mexico.”

As of Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service predicted a 65% chance of rain in Houston and Galveston on Friday, along with a 40% chance for precipitation in the Houston metro area on Saturday.

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