Understanding the Delayed Arrival of Winter in Dallas
The first half of fall in Dallas was warmer than normal, with 2025 breaking a record for the latest arrival of overnight lows in the 50s.
And it’s not just this year that’s taken ages to cool down. Since 1970, the first freeze has occurred later in 88% of U.S. cities, according to a report released this fall by Climate Central. Across the country, the arrival of 32 degrees has come an average of 12 days later, though the trends in Texas look a little different.
National Trends vs. Texas Trends
While El Paso’s average first freeze is an average of 20 days later than it was in 1970, the change is a lot smaller in most other Texas cities that were studied. For Dallas-Fort Worth, the first freeze has only shifted three days later.
Several cities — including Wichita Falls, Lubbock, Abilene and Odessa — saw almost no change. Waco even had its first freeze arrive an average of 11 days sooner, according to the report.
Staying Informed About the Weather
D-FW Weather Wise
Understanding the Broader Climate Patterns
John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas’ state climatologist based at Texas A&M, said that when the timing of one specific indicator is singled out, it can lose the context of broader climate patterns across the state. He said the lack of a clear trend in Texas could be due to the natural variability of weather patterns.
“[Looking at] what the average temperatures have done in the fall in Texas, it turns out those have increased over the last 50 or so years at about the same rate as in other seasons,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “You really have to look at things in the big picture to see what’s happening in terms of climate change.”
Rising Temperatures in Texas
An assessment of Texas weather trends, produced last year by Nielsen-Gammon’s office, indicates that average temperatures have been rising for all regions of Texas. The rate of increase also appears to be speeding up, over half a degree per decade since 1975.
Regional Weather Events
With so many cities nationally experiencing later first freezes, it could seem odd that so many of the unaffected cities are in Texas. But Nielsen-Gammon said this isn’t particularly surprising, as big weather events often happen to more than one area of the state.
“If Dallas gets a cold front, then probably Tyler and Austin get the same cold front,” he said.
Predicting the First Freeze in Dallas-Fort Worth
While we don’t know exactly when the first freeze will arrive to Dallas-Fort Worth this year, the average date in recent years has been Nov. 23.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the delayed arrival of winter in Dallas is part of a larger national trend of later first freezes. However, Texas trends are more complex, with some cities experiencing little to no change in the timing of their first freeze. Understanding these broader climate patterns is crucial for predicting and preparing for weather events in the state.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the average date of the first freeze in Dallas-Fort Worth?
A: The average date of the first freeze in Dallas-Fort Worth is Nov. 23.
Q: Are temperatures rising in Texas?
A: Yes, average temperatures have been rising for all regions of Texas, with the rate of increase speeding up over half a degree per decade since 1975.
Q: Why are some cities in Texas unaffected by the national trend of later first freezes?
A: The lack of a clear trend in Texas could be due to the natural variability of weather patterns, and big weather events often happen to more than one area of the state.
