Championship Teams and the Road to Success
Championship teams, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian mused last Monday in his weekly news conference, are required to at some point win games that they “aren’t supposed to” in order to sustain lofty aspirations. He’s by no means incorrect, but, there’s two notes to consider. The first: Texas, by all accounts and expectations, was supposed to beat Kentucky and Mississippi State. The second: The opponent that stands between it and that championship lifeline has become the modern day model of improbable success.
The Longhorns — ranked No. 20 in the AP Top 25 with a 6-2 record overall and a 3-1 record in Southeastern Conference play — play the ninth-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores (7-1, 3-1 SEC) at 11 a.m. Saturday in a long-awaited return to DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium that may double as a decisive contest for the postseason fate of both sides. They haven’t played at home since a 55-0 win vs. Sam Houston State on Sep. 20 and have played three true road games and one neutral site game since.
Return to DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
“I know our team is re-energized to be back at home,” Sarkisian said. “I’m sure our fans, our students are going to be re-energized to be back at home. It’s an 11 a.m. kick so everybody don’t have too much fun on Halloween. We’ll celebrate after.”
Game Projections and Odds
The Longhorns are 2.5-point favorites vs. the Commodores — a figure which might’ve been difficult to comprehend before Vanderbilt’s recent ascension into legitimacy — according to oddsmakers. Consider that a nod in favor of the home team; Vanderbilt’s strength of résumé (with wins over three ranked teams and a single loss to another) trumps a Texas body of work that’s currently propped up by a Red River Rivalry game victory vs. an Oklahoma team that looked its worst yet at the Cotton Bowl in the October matchup.
The availability of Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (concussion protocol) could ultimately swing that projection in one direction or another. The capabilities of Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia, a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender, can do the same.
Home Field Advantage
The Longhorns have won 16 of their last 17 games at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium but haven’t beaten a top-10 team there in nearly a decade. Their last — a 35-34 win vs. No. 8 Baylor on Oct. 29, 2016 — preceded a stretch of five winless games vs. the nation’s best programs at home.
- No. 10 Oklahoma State beat Texas in overtime in the 2017 season.
- In 2019, against eventual national champion LSU, the Joe Burrow-to-Justin Jefferson connection led the sixth-ranked Tigers to a wild win.
- Top-ranked Alabama beat them by a single point in the second game of the 2022 season and fourth-ranked TCU beat them by a touchdown two months later on their route to the playoffs.
- Georgia, then the No. 5 team in the nation, delivered the Longhorns their only regular season loss last year.
Player and Coach Quotes
“I think it’s been 42 days, or something, since we last played in there,” edge rusher Ethan Burke said. “We’re just excited to be back with the fans, stay in Austin for the weekend and not travel to Kentucky or Mississippi or something.”
Performance and Playoffs
The Longhorns were taken into overtime by two teams that are a combined 0 and 9 in conference play this season and stumbled on both sides of the ball along the way in their jaunt through the South. They posted their worst offensive grade this season (55.4, according to Pro Football Focus) against the Wildcats and their worst defensive grade (64.5) against the Bulldogs.
On the topic of championships: Zero three-loss teams earned an at-large bid into last year’s College Football Playoff field. Clemson was the only program with more than two losses to qualify and it needed to beat SMU in the ACC championship game to trigger its automatic entry.
The Longhorns have just a 41% chance to reach the playoffs, per ESPN’s model, while the Commodores have a 44% chance. Georgia and Texas A&M — each of which would all but surely squeeze into the 12-team bracket if the playoffs started this week — are both left to play. Those games may decide nothing more than whether the Longhorns play in the Citrus Bowl or the Music City Bowl if Vanderbilt isn’t dispatched.
Find more Longhorns coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.
Find more college sports coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Longhorns have a crucial game ahead of them against the Commodores, which will determine their postseason fate. With a 2.5-point favorite odds and a strong home field advantage, they have a good chance of winning. However, the availability of quarterback Arch Manning and the capabilities of Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia will play a significant role in the outcome of the game.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here are some frequently asked questions about the Longhorns and their upcoming game against the Commodores:
Q: What is the current ranking of the Longhorns in the AP Top 25?
A: The Longhorns are currently ranked No. 20 in the AP Top 25.
Q: What is the record of the Longhorns in the Southeastern Conference play?
A: The Longhorns have a 3-1 record in the Southeastern Conference play.
Q: Who is the quarterback for the Commodores?
A: The quarterback for the Commodores is Diego Pavia, a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender.
Q: What is the home field advantage of the Longhorns at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium?
A: The Longhorns have won 16 of their last 17 games at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
