Redistricting in Texas: A Data Science Expert’s Perspective
EL PASO – A data science expert said Monday there was “strong evidence” lawmakers considered race when drawing Texas’ new congressional map intended to net Republicans up to five seats in Congress.
Moon Duchin, a mathematician and data expert on redistricting issues, said the result of the 2025 map was the dilution of minority voting strength in key areas of the state, including Dallas and its suburbs.
“There’s strong evidence that race was used in the creation of this map,” Duchin testified during a federal hearing.
A three-judge panel is hearing testimony this week in El Paso to determine whether Texas’ congressional maps were redrawn earlier this year with partisan politics or race in mind. If the panel rules the maps are illegal, Texas’ 2026 congressional election would be conducted using the old maps or interim maps drawn by the court. It is not clear whether the judges will issue a ruling before filing for the elections closes on Dec. 8.
Understanding the Issue
Duchin is a witness for the plaintiffs who are seeking an injunction to block the map before the candidate field is set.
“I cannot look into their hearts and minds,” Duchin said about those who developed the map. “The evidence is consistent and highly suggestive that race was used.”
Duchin was one of the final witnesses heard before plaintiffs’ lawyers rested their case. Lawyers representing the state then began presenting their side on Monday afternoon, with state Sen. Phil King, R-Weatherford and chairman of the Senate’s redistricting committee, as their first witness.
King testified that the purpose of developing the new map was political gain.
“It was absolutely to create more Republican seats in the U.S. Congress,” he said.
The Impact on North Texas
Courts have given lawmakers latitude in producing legislative and congressional boundaries that are gerrymandered, but for political purposes. Racial gerrymandering could violate the U.S. Constitution and the federal Voting Rights Act.
Duchin’s testimony focused on North Texas.
District 33, currently represented by Marc Veasey, D-Fort Worth, was redrawn to exclude Tarrant County, his political base. It’s now a Dallas County-anchored district.
Duchin said a white Democrat would likely win the primary and general election, given the new boundaries. That would mean minority voters would lose clout. Veasey, who is Black, has represented the district since its inception in 2013.
Nearby District 32, represented by Democrat Julie Johnson, was redrawn as well. Instead of a mostly Dallas County district, it now extends into East Texas, adding rural voters that transform it into a Republican stronghold.
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Potential Consequences
Johnson has said she intends to run in District 33 next year, if the map is upheld. It’s widely believed Johnson, a white Democrat, would have a strong advantage over Veasey in a primary battle. But Johnson could have a tough time against Rep. Jasmine Crockett,who represents nearby District 30 and its Democrats across demographics. Black voters from District 33 and others areas were consolidated into Crockett’s district, which analysts say amounts to “packing.”
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Veasey and Crockett are still considering their 2026 options.
“Taken together, I would see that as a net loss,” Duchin said of how the map impacts the Dallas area.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, the redistricting process in Texas has raised concerns about the potential dilution of minority voting strength. The new congressional map, which was intended to net Republicans up to five seats in Congress, has been criticized for its potential impact on minority voters. The court’s decision will have significant implications for the 2026 congressional election and the future of representation in Texas.
FAQs
Q: What is redistricting and why is it important?
A: Redistricting is the process of redrawing congressional and legislative boundaries to reflect changes in population. It is important because it can impact the representation of different communities and groups in the government.
Q: What is gerrymandering and how does it relate to redistricting?
A: Gerrymandering is the practice of manipulating electoral district boundaries for political gain. It can involve drawing boundaries that favor one party or group over others, and can have a significant impact on the outcome of elections.
Q: What are the potential consequences of the new congressional map in Texas?
A: The new congressional map in Texas could lead to a dilution of minority voting strength, potentially resulting in fewer minority representatives in Congress. It could also impact the balance of power in the government, potentially favoring one party over others.
