Texas Tech Football: Road to the Big 12 Championship
Texas Tech has one goal in mind in 2025: Win the Big 12 Championship.
To accomplish that, the Red Raiders will lean on a veteran-laced team of four-star transfers and preseason award watch-list returners.
The expectations for a program that spent more millions in one offseason than total wins in its head coach’s tenure are beyond sky high.
With that, here are predictions for every game on the 2025 Texas Tech football schedule:
Sports Roundup
Game Predictions
Aug. 30: Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas Tech
In 2024, Arkansas-Pine Bluff opened its season against Arkansas and lost, 70-0. A similar outcome is a real possibility at Jones AT&T Stadium when the Red Raiders showcase their new talent. Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire historically lets off the gas when up by a comfortable margin, but with the Red Raider fanbase eager for a show, he could let the fireworks fly.
Prediction: Texas Tech 52, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7
Sept. 6: Kent State at Texas Tech
Fordham transfer quarterback CJ Montes will be the first arm to test Texas Tech’s improvement in the secondary. After posting the worst pass defense amongst Power Four programs, Texas Tech added Mississippi State transfer Brice Pollock, Charlotte transfer Dontae Balfour, UTEP transfer Amier Boyd and North Dakota State transfer Cole Wisniewski. Montes suited up for just three games in 2024, but was a 3,000-yard passer with 26 touchdowns in 2023.
Nevertheless, Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton will make quick work of a Kent State defense that allowed an average of 60.3 points per game to Power Four programs last season.
Prediction: Texas Tech 62, Kent State 13
Sept. 13: Oregon State at Texas Tech
Too much time spent beating your opponents like it’s a scrimmage can easily lull an undisciplined team to sleep. Oregon State quarterback Maalik Murphy is a high-caliber signal caller and will give Texas Tech reason for concern. However, only one Beaver offensive lineman played a full season in 2024. If the Texas Tech defensive line plays up to its potential, Murphy will be pushed out of the pocket on every throw and rattled early by defensive coordinator Shiel Wood’s exotic blitzes.
Prediction: Texas Tech 41, Oregon State 27
Sept. 20: Texas Tech at Utah
Undefeated and touting one of the nation’s top scoring offenses at this point, Texas Tech’s momentum will snowball in its conference opener. Utah quarterback Devon Dampier struggled with interceptions in 2024 at New Mexico, and the Red Raider defense is far from the struggling secondary it was in 2024. If Dampier can find success with his legs, the Utes will keep the game competitive. But if Texas Tech defensive tackle Lee Hunter can maintain pass rush lane integrity, Dampier will be stuck running in circles.
Prediction: Texas Tech 35, Utah 17
Oct. 4: Texas Tech at Houston
The Red Raiders will be coming off a bye week and hoping to start 5-0 for the first time since 2008. Although revamped offensively, the Cougars’ defense will not be able to keep pace with the verticality of Texas Tech offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich. Houston and Texas Tech will trade blows until the Red Raider defense eliminates Ball State transfer tight end Tanner Koziol from the Cougars’ playbook.
Prediction: Texas Tech 55, Houston 42
Oct. 11: Kansas at Texas Tech
Rapper Waka Flocka Flame will headline Texas Tech’s pregame tailgate concert at Raider Alley, and like his chorus says in “Grove St. Party,” it will be a party. Between going three weeks without a home game to the first installment of the Big 12’s disciplinary actions for items thrown on the field at Jones AT&T Stadium, Texas Tech fans will be as rowdy as they come. It may take McGuire getting on the microphone to calm down the audience, but each score and missed call will only fuel the crowd.
Prediction: Texas Tech 42, Kansas 19
Oct. 18: Texas Tech at Arizona State
“College Gameday” will be in Tempe, Ariz., and Texas Tech fans will be comparing the 6-0 start to 2008. However, everything good must come to an end. The reigning Big 12 champions haven’t received as much media attention as the Red Raiders, but Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt is a potential Heisman finalist in his redshirt sophomore season. The Sun Devils faced pressure in 2024. They know how to deal with the whole nation watching. Texas Tech does not.
Prediction: Arizona State 31, Texas Tech 24
Oct. 25: Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
The Cowboys have many unknowns in 2025, but none more impactful than the quarterback battle. Neither third-year signal caller Zane Flores nor TCU transfer Hauss Hejny has thrown a pass at the collegiate level. The final result of Texas Tech’s bounce-back game shouldn’t be in jeopardy unless one of the two has a breakout campaign.
Prediction: Texas Tech 27, Oklahoma State 10
Nov. 1: Texas Tech at Kansas State
The last time Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson faced Texas Tech, he rushed for five touchdowns. The Red Raiders’ front seven is drastically different, but so is Johnson’s approach to the game. The junior Wildcat is throwing 20-30 times a game, while using his legs primarily for evading defenders in the backfield. If Texas Tech is to make it to the Big 12 title game, the result in Manhattan, Kan., will be the deciding factor.
Prediction: Kansas State 24, Texas Tech 22
Nov. 8: BYU at Texas Tech
Bear Bachmeier will be the first BYU quarterback to start in Week 1 as a true freshman in program history. For Texas Tech outside linebackers Romello Height and David Bailey, that’s the most exciting news of the season. Combined, the pair of seniors have over 2,000 snaps played at the collegiate level.
Prediction: Texas Tech 31, BYU 19
Nov. 15: UCF at Texas Tech
Trap games are more than just a scary story football players tell around the campfire during the offseason retreat. Although UCF will be entering this game with zero possibility of making the Big 12 Championship, it may be on the edge of bowl eligibility. The Scott Frost era began with a 6-7 season in 2016 and ended with a 13-0 season in 2017. With him back at the helm of UCF, the Knights will utilize 2025 as their culture year, which could catch a comfortable Texas Tech squad off balance.
Prediction: UCF 28, Texas Tech 17
Nov. 29: Texas Tech at West Virginia
After an uncharacteristic loss and with a Big 12 Championship bid on the line, Texas Tech will be out for blood in Morgantown, W.Va.
A loss would mean missing out on the conference title game and confirmation that a team can’t buy its way to victory. McGuire will leave nothing in the tank. Every fourth-down play will be attempted, and field goals won’t be an option on drives past the 30-yard line.
Prediction: Texas Tech 56, West Virginia 13
Season Prediction
Prediction for the 2025 Season: 9-3 (6-3)
