Introduction to Hurricane Season
The National Hurricane Center on Sunday continued to track newly formed Tropical Storm Fernand in the open Atlantic while also eyeing a system approaching the Caribbean that could become the next tropical depression or storm. As of the NHC’s 5 p.m. advisory, the center of Fernand was located about 295 miles east of Bermuda moving north-northeast at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 60 miles.
Current Storm Movement and Forecast
“This motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, followed by a turn to the northeast,” forecasters said. “On the forecast track, Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the open waters of the subtropical North Atlantic.” While it may strengthen in the next two days, it’s not expected to threaten any land before weakening by Tuesday. Fernand became the sixth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on Saturday while the NHC is keeping track of what could be the seventh farther south in the Atlantic.
Potential Development of a New Storm
As of the NHC’s 5 p.m. special tropical outlook, the tropical wave was about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands with showers and thunderstorms, but a lack of circulation. “This system could still become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands later today and early Monday,” forecasters said. It could become Tropical Depression Seven or if strong enough be named Tropical Storm Gabrielle.
Expected Impact on the Caribbean
No matter the development, the Caribbean islands can expect heavy rainfall and gusty winds through Monday. It’s then forecast to move into the Central Caribbean on Tuesday where conditions are less favorable for additional development. “Data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the system located near the Windward Islands does not have a closed low-level circulation,” Forecasters said. “However, the system is still producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and winds to near gale force, and these conditions are expected to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands tonight and Monday.”
Development Chance and Season Forecast
The NHC gave it a 30% chance to develop in the next two to seven days, a lower chance than earlier on Sunday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently updated its season forecast to call for 13-18 named storms this year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Fernand and a potential new storm system approaching the Caribbean. While Fernand is not expected to threaten any land, the new system could bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Caribbean islands. It is essential to stay informed about the latest developments and forecasts to ensure safety and preparedness.
FAQs
Q: What is the current status of Tropical Storm Fernand?
A: As of the NHC’s 5 p.m. advisory, the center of Fernand was located about 295 miles east of Bermuda moving north-northeast at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
Q: Is the new storm system expected to develop into a tropical depression or storm?
A: The NHC gave it a 30% chance to develop in the next two to seven days, and it could become Tropical Depression Seven or if strong enough be named Tropical Storm Gabrielle.
Q: What is the expected impact of the new storm system on the Caribbean?
A: The Caribbean islands can expect heavy rainfall and gusty winds through Monday, with conditions affecting the Windward and Leeward Islands tonight and Monday.
Q: What is the updated season forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
A: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently updated its season forecast to call for 13-18 named storms this year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
Q: When is the height of hurricane season?
A: The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October, while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.
