Flood Risks and Camp Mystic

At least 12 structures at Camp Mystic along the Guadalupe River were fully within the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s 2011 National Flood Insurance map for Kerr County, and a few more were partially in that zone, according to an Associated Press analysis of data provided by First Street, a data science company that specializes in modeling climate risk.

Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications at First Street, said FEMA’s flood insurance map underestimates flood risks. That’s because it fails to take into account the effects of heavy precipitation on smaller waterways such as streams and creeks.

Understanding Flood Risks

First Street’s own model puts nearly all of Camp Mystic Guadalupe at risk during a 100-year flood, one severe enough that it only has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. This is a significant concern, as the camp is located in a low-lying area along the Guadalupe River in a region known as flash flood alley.

The buildings at the camp’s newer Cypress Lake site are farther from the south fork of the flood-prone river but adjacent to Cypress Creek. However, FEMA’s flood plain doesn’t consider the small waterway a risk. Campers have said the cabins at Cypress Lake withstood significant damage, but those nicknamed “the flats” at the Guadalupe River camp were inundated.

First Street’s Model

First Street’s model, which takes into account heavy rain and runoff reaching the creek, shows that the majority of the Cypress Lake site lies within an area at risk during a 100-year flood. These maps are current as of July 11, 2025.

The model is a more accurate representation of the flood risks in the area, as it considers the effects of heavy precipitation on smaller waterways. This is important, as the camp has been affected by severe flooding in the past.

The Recent Flood

Located in a low-lying area along the Guadalupe River in a region known as flash flood alley, Camp Mystic lost at least 27 campers and counselors and longtime owner Dick Eastland when historic floodwaters tore through its property before dawn on July 4.

Camp Mystic didn’t respond to emails from the AP seeking comment and calls to it rang unanswered. The camp has called the flood an “unimaginable tragedy”

Source: FEMA, First Street, Associated Press reporting.

Related Disasters

The Kerr County flood is one of the deadliest disasters in Texas history. The flood has raised concerns about the safety of the camp and the need for more accurate flood risk assessments.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the flood risks at Camp Mystic are significant, and the camp is located in an area prone to severe flooding. The First Street model provides a more accurate representation of the flood risks in the area, and it is essential to consider the effects of heavy precipitation on smaller waterways.

The recent flood has highlighted the need for more accurate flood risk assessments and the importance of taking steps to mitigate the risks of flooding. It is crucial to prioritize the safety of the campers and staff and to take measures to prevent such tragedies from occurring in the future.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the flood risk at Camp Mystic?

A: The flood risk at Camp Mystic is significant, with at least 12 structures fully within the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s 2011 National Flood Insurance map for Kerr County.

Q: Why does FEMA’s flood insurance map underestimate flood risks?

A: FEMA’s flood insurance map underestimates flood risks because it fails to take into account the effects of heavy precipitation on smaller waterways such as streams and creeks.

Q: What is the First Street model, and how does it differ from FEMA’s flood insurance map?

A: The First Street model is a more accurate representation of the flood risks in the area, as it considers the effects of heavy rain and runoff reaching the creek. It shows that the majority of the Cypress Lake site lies within an area at risk during a 100-year flood.

Q: What happened during the recent flood at Camp Mystic?

A: The recent flood at Camp Mystic resulted in the loss of at least 27 campers and counselors and longtime owner Dick Eastland when historic floodwaters tore through its property before dawn on July 4.