President Trump’s Big Bill: Understanding the Congressional Budget Office’s Analysis

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s big bill making its way through Congress will cut taxes by $3.75 trillion but also increase deficits by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The CBO also estimates an increase of 10.9 million people without health insurance by 2034 under the bill, including 1.4 million in the U.S. without legal status in state-funded programs.

The package would reduce federal spending, by nearly $1.3 trillion over that period, the budget office said.

“In the words of Elon Musk, this bill is a ‘disgusting abomination,’” said Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, referencing Musk’s former Trump aide’s criticism of the package a day earlier.

Understanding the Bill’s Provisions

The analysis comes at a crucial moment in the legislative process as Trump is pushing Congress to have the final product on his desk to sign into law by July 4. The work of the CBO, which for decades has served as the official scorekeeper of legislation in Congress, will be weighed by lawmakers and others seeking to understand the budgetary impacts of the sprawling 1,000-page-plus package.

Ahead of the CBO’s release, the White House and Republican leaders criticized the budget office in a preemptive campaign designed to sow doubt in its findings.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the CBO has been “historically wrong,” and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said the CBO was “flat wrong” because it underestimated the potential revenue growth from Trump’s first round of tax breaks in 2017.

Criticisms of the Congressional Budget Office

White House Budget Director Russ Vought said when you adjust for “current policy” — which means not counting some $4.5 trillion in existing tax breaks that are simply being extended for the next decade — the overall package actually doesn’t pile onto the deficit. He argued the spending cuts alone help reduce deficits by $1.4 trillion over the decade.

Democrats and even some Republicans call that “current policy” accounting move a gimmick, but it’s the approach Senate Republicans intend to use during their consideration of the package.

Vought argued the CBO is the one using a “gimmick” by tallying the costs of continuing those tax breaks that would otherwise expire.

The Bill’s Impact on Healthcare and Social Programs

Alongside the costs of the bill, the CBO had previously estimated that nearly 4 million fewer people would have food stamps each month due to the legislation’s proposed changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP.

The bill, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act after the president’s own catch phrase, is grinding its way through Congress as the top priority of Republicans, who control both the House and the Senate. It faces stiff opposition from Democrats.

All told, the package seeks to extend the individual income tax breaks that had been approved in 2017 but that will expire in December if Congress fails to act, while adding new ones, including no taxes on tips.

Debt Limit and Budget Process

The package also would provide a $4 trillion increase to the nation’s debt limit, which is now $36 trillion, to allow more borrowing. The Treasury Department projects the debt limit will need to be raised this summer to pay the nation’s already accrued bills.

Now in its 50th year, the CBO was established by law after Congress sought to assert its control, as outlined in the Constitution, over the budget process, in part by setting up the new office as an alternative to the White House’s Office of Management and Budget.

Conclusion

The Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of President Trump’s big bill provides a crucial understanding of the bill’s provisions and its potential impact on the nation’s budget and healthcare system. As the bill continues to make its way through Congress, it is essential for lawmakers and the public to carefully consider the CBO’s findings and the potential consequences of the bill’s passage.

FAQs

Q: What is the Congressional Budget Office, and what is its role in the legislative process?

A: The Congressional Budget Office is a nonpartisan agency that provides objective, impartial information about budgetary and economic issues to Congress. Its role is to analyze the budgetary impacts of legislation and provide estimates of the costs and benefits of proposed bills.

Q: What are the main provisions of President Trump’s big bill, and how will they affect the nation’s budget and healthcare system?

A: The bill seeks to extend individual income tax breaks, add new tax breaks, and increase funding for border security and national security. However, it also proposes significant cuts to federal spending, including reductions in healthcare and social programs, which could have a significant impact on the nation’s budget and healthcare system.

Q: What is the significance of the debt limit, and why is it important to the nation’s budget process?

A: The debt limit is the maximum amount of debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. Increasing the debt limit allows the government to borrow more money to pay its bills, but it also increases the nation’s debt burden and can have long-term consequences for the economy.