Overcoming the Odds: Can the Dallas Stars Make a Comeback?
If there’s any sport you’d want to be down 3-1 in a playoff series in, hockey would probably be the first choice, but that doesn’t make the challenge ahead for the Dallas Stars any easier.
After dropping three straight games in their Western Conference finals series against the Edmonton Oilers, the Stars need to win three straight to avoid a third-round exit for the third straight year.
The Challenge Ahead
NHL teams that take a 3-1 lead in the series go on to win the series 91% of the time. But 31 NHL teams have overcome that deficit before, compared to just 14 MLB teams and 13 NBA teams.
No MLB or NBA team has overcome a 3-1 deficit since 2020. Since then, NHL teams have done so three times, with the Florida Panthers achieving the feat most recently in the first round of 2023 against the Boston Bruins.
A Glimmer of Hope
There may be some recent league history to show the Stars’ task ahead isn’t impossible, but it’s a feat the Stars have never accomplished themselves.
The Stars are 0-16 in series where they’ve trailed 3-1. They’ve forced a Game 7 just once in those 16 series, taking the Vancouver Canucks the distance after Marty Turco held the Canucks scoreless for 167:05 in the first round of the 2007 playoffs. But Vancouver won Game 7 4-1.
The Stars’ current opponent also has an impressive 17-1 record when leading a series 3-1. The Oilers’ only loss was in 1989.
A Challenge Ahead
“It’s going to be a challenge,” Stars forward Jason Robertson said.
This Stars team hasn’t made anything easy. They’ve given up the first goal in 14 of 17 playoff contests but went on to win six of those games. They’ve dug themselves out of multiple two-goal third-period deficits — the first team to do so in a playoff run.
They’ll need to channel that resilience again to have any chance of saving their season, and even if they can, it’s still an uphill battle to climb.
The Odds are Against Them
It’d be one thing if the Stars had lost a few overtime battles to get here, but Dallas has been outscored 13-2 over its past three games. Outside of a five-goal third period in Game 1, the Stars have scored just three goals in four games, and Robertson was the only Star to score on the road trip to Rogers Place.
Edmonton seems to have their number, winning six of their last seven playoff meetings. If it weren’t for that shocking third-period surge, the Oilers could’ve been onto the Stanley Cup Final by now.
A Lot to Play For
Most have written off the Stars, and that may be how the next few games shake out. But beyond reaching their first Stanley Cup Final since 2020, the Stars have a lot to play for.
The expectations entering this year’s Western Conference finals were different. It’s not like two years ago when the Stars were just happy to be there against a far more skilled Vegas Golden Knights
