Saturday, October 4, 2025

Rainfall Outlook

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This past week featured two separate episodes of extreme rainfall several states apart over the Southern U.S.

The culprit behind these episodes was moisture streaming northward from Rafael, a tropical system located several hundred miles south of the U.S. coastline. This moisture interacted with two surface boundaries to Rafael’s northwest, leading to the extreme rainfall.

Next chance of rain arrives late Wednesday afternoon and continues into Thursday morning

According to forecast models, the next chance of rain is expected to arrive late Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday morning. This system is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the region, with some areas potentially seeing over 2 inches of rain.

Forecast model simulation at various times

The following images show the forecast model simulation at various times, highlighting the expected rainfall amounts and timing.

Potential rainfall between late Wednesday and Thursday

The following images show the potential rainfall between late Wednesday and Thursday.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Southern U.S. experienced two separate episodes of extreme rainfall this past week, with the next chance of rain expected to arrive late Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday morning. The forecast models indicate heavy rainfall is expected, with some areas potentially seeing over 2 inches of rain.

FAQs

Q: What caused the extreme rainfall in the Southern U.S.?
A: Moisture streaming northward from Rafael, a tropical system located several hundred miles south of the U.S. coastline, interacted with two surface boundaries to Rafael’s northwest, leading to the extreme rainfall.

Q: When is the next chance of rain expected to arrive?
A: The next chance of rain is expected to arrive late Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday morning.

Q: How much rainfall is expected?
A: The forecast models indicate heavy rainfall is expected, with some areas potentially seeing over 2 inches of rain.

Q: Will the rain cause any issues?
A: The heavy rainfall may cause some issues, such as flooding and power outages. Residents are advised to stay informed and take necessary precautions.

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