NFL Picks: A Tale of Two Teams
Introduction to the NFL Picks
LAS VEGAS — Just when a key might have been revealed to unlock NFL betting profits, it snapped in half like a stale pretzel before turning the latch.
Favorites on the moneyline to eliminate the dastardly spread? Recent dividends had been handsome.
However, Colts-Steelers, plus the Packers (against the Panthers) and the Lions (against the Vikings), both at home, upended that developing theme in spectacular flameouts.
“Who can beat it?” a well-known veteran handicapper told me among my typical frenzy of Sunday calls. I agreed to conceal his identity. With the NFL, he mostly deals in player props.
“I’ve been saying it for years,” he said. “Plus, NFL sides are the most efficient lines in the world. The bookmaker is blessed by God, too!”
How’s that for a booster shot going into Week 10?
Discrepancy in Team Performance
We have zeroed in on Bills-Dolphins as the week’s largest discrepancy, teams zipping in opposite directions. The Bills have won eight of their last 12 near South Beach, including five of their last six.
Moreover, the Bills are fifth in points-per-play (PPP) margin (.104), a prized metric of ours that has them at.164 over their last three games. The Dolphins (-.106, 27th) are riding a -.187 slippery slope in their previous three tilts. TeamRankings displays those statistics in its impressive database.
Introduction of New Metrics
And this week we introduce some new weapons into our arsenal, thanks to Kevin Braig, judge for the Logan County Court of Common Pleas in Ohio.
He’s the son of Raymond Braig, a decorated youth football coach in the Cincinnati area whose many talented players have matriculated to famous Moeller High and several to Notre Dame.
Kevin has toyed with pertinent figures, numbers below the common radar, for nearly 10 years. A half-season of patterns and tendencies will help prognosticate the second half. He provides them to subscribers in a nifty monthly newsletter.
(This is a fine weekend for Braig as we introduce his metrics here and, on Sunday, we profile his cool newsletter, full of in-depth features, statistics and gambling stories.)
In play-design differential, Braig rates Buffalo fourth at 5.17, while Miami (-2.86) checks in at 24th. He also spotlights player-productivity differential, passing and pass-coverage efficiency, protection, pressure and other nuggets.
The Bills trump the Dolphins in every category, most by a significant margin. Overall, the Rams and Seahawks joust for NFL supremacy, the former with luck and turnover edges, the latter with an easier schedule.
Coaching and Team Performance
Dolphins fourth-year coach Mike McDaniel was the preseason favorite at several offshore sites to be the first NFL coach to get sacked this season. That he has not yet been shown the door is amazing.
Does he have the gig at this time next week?
Best Bet
BILLS at DOLPHINS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Bills by 9½.
Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 6-2/4-4; Dolphins 2-7/4-5.
Pick: Bills 29, Dolphins 10.
Play: Bills -9½.
How Miech’s Plays Fared
Last week Overall
Best bet 1-0 5-4
Top 3 1-2 14-13
All plays 6-8 57-78
7-point tease 9-5 88-45-2
Top Plays
FALCONS vs. COLTS at Olympic Stadium, Berlin
Time: 8:30 a.m. Sunday, NFL Network.
Line: Colts by 6½. Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 3-5/4-4; Colts 7-2/6-3.
Outlook: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 895 rushing yards. When Falcons RB Bijan Robinson carries at least 19 times, he goes for triple digits and his team is 2-0. New Colts CB Sauce Gardner has an immediate impact.
Pick: Colts 27, Falcons 10.
Play: Colts -6½.
CARDINALS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Seahawks by 6½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 3-5/5-3; Seahawks 6-2/6-2.
Outlook: Ten-year veteran QB Jacoby Brissett has made Arizona formidable. In three starts, he has thrown for 860 yards, six TDs and a lone pick among 111 attempts. Kyler who? Seattle has won just 47.4% of its home games since ’21.
Pick: Cardinals 24, Seahawks 21.
Play: Cardinals +6½.
RAMS at 49ERS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Rams by 4½. Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Rams 6-2/6-2; 49ers 6-3/5-4.
Outlook: The Rams own the league’s top PPP margin over their last three games (0.347). The L.A. “D” is best equipped to slow the Niners’ Christian McCaffrey, a Walter Payton/Marshall Faulk clone who has 1,222 total yards this season.
Pick: Rams 24, 49ers 19.
Play: Rams -4½.
Other Plays
GIANTS at BEARS
Time: Noon Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Bears by 3½. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 2-7/4-5; Bears 5-3/5-3.
Outlook: Giants QB Jaxson Dart is the first signal-calling rookie to collect rushing and passing TDs in four consecutive games. The Bears have allowed an average of 29 points in their last three tilts; the Giants yield 32 on the road.
Pick: Giants 28, Bears 24.
Play: Over 47½.
RAVENS at VIKINGS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Ravens by 4½. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 3-5/3-5; Vikings 4-4/4-4.
Outlook: Away from home, the Ravens allow foes to throw for an NFL-high 300 yards a game, which will help Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy. The key, though, will be the Vikings running at least 30 times for triple figures. When they do, they’re 3-0.
Pick: Vikings 19, Ravens 13.
Play: Vikings +4½.
BROWNS at JETS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Browns by 2½. Total: 37½.
Records (overall/ATS): Browns 2-6/3-5; Jets 1-7/4-4.
Outlook: After the Jets dumped CB Sauce Gardner and DL Quinnen Williams on Tuesday, this lined flipped four points, from Jets -1½. The Browns are 0-4 on the road, but their stellar defense and rookie RB Quinshon Judkins will fuel this triumph.
Pick: Browns 16, Jets 9.
Play: Browns -2½.
PATRIOTS at BUCCANEERS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Buccaneers by 2½. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 7-2/6-3; Buccaneers 6-2/5-3.
Outlook: Circa Sports had preseason Super Bowl exacta odds of 3,100-1 on Pats over Bucs and 2,600-1 on Bucs over Pats. The Pats haven’t yielded 50 yards to any tailback this season. Pats QB Drake Maye has two picks in his last 149 throws.
Pick: Patriots 27, Buccaneers 26.
Play: Patriots +2½.
SAINTS at PANTHERS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Panthers by 5½. Total: 39½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 1-8/2-7; Panthers 5-4/6-3.
Outlook: The Panthers are 3-1 at home, the sole blemish a blowout loss to the Bills. Carolina returns from success in Green Bay for an underwhelming game against the Saints, who battle the Titans for worst-team status.
Pick: Panthers 21, Saints 6.
Play: Panthers -5½.
JAGUARS at TEXANS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Texans by 1½. Total: 38½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 5-3/4-3-1; Texans 3-5/3-5.
Outlook: Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) is out, so fifth-year pro and Stanford product Davis Mills gets the nod. He’s 5-19-1 as a starter, with one playoff completion (for six yards). Does Houston’s defense score?
Pick: Jaguars 17, Texans 13.
Play: Jaguars +1½.
LIONS at COMMANDERS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Lions by 8½. Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Lions 5-3/5-3; Commanders 3-6/3-6.
Outlook: QB Marcus Mariota
