Winter Weather Outlook for the Chicago Area

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its 2025-26 winter weather outlook, and it paints an interesting picture about the Chicago area.

The outlook, which covers the three months of meteorological winter beginning December 1, 2025 and ending February 28, 2026, uses available data to forecast how winter will unfold across the United States.

Understanding La Niña and Its Impact on Winter Weather

This year’s outlook is impacted by an ongoing La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean, which typically sees the jet stream push northward over the ocean before sweeping back toward the south over the North American continent, funneling storm systems toward the upper Midwest.

As a result, the NOAA projections are leaning toward an above-average amount of precipitation over the Chicago area, especially in eastern Illinois and across most of Indiana, according to the model guidance.

That would fit with the University of Illinois’ description of La Niña conditions, with that weather pattern typically causing more precipitation than average, and with more snow and winter storms possible across the Chicago area.

Expected Snowfall and Precipitation

Typically, the Chicago area sees an average of 7.6 inches of snow in December, 11.3 inches of snow in January, and 10.7 inches of snow in February, according to the National Weather Service.

La Niña doesn’t typically have a strong effect on winter temperatures, though the pattern can generate warmer-than-average winters when it’s in place, depending on the strength of the pattern in the Pacific Ocean, according to the University of Illinois.

Temperature Projections for the Midwest

The NOAA’s projections don’t quite hit that mark, however. According to the projections, most of the Midwest, including the Chicago area, has equal chances of above or below-average temperatures during the coming winter.

Most of the southern and southwestern United States could see above-average temperatures, while the northern Great Plains, along with Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin, could see below-average temperatures.

The average high temperature in the month of December in Chicago is 36.6 degrees. January is the coldest month of the year, with an average temperature just below the freezing mark, and in February it rebounds slightly to 35.7 degrees, according to NWS.

Duration of La Niña Pattern

The La Niña pattern may not last all the way through winter, either. According to the latest La Niña advisory issued by NOAA, the pattern could persist into February before transitioning back to neutral conditions for the final weeks of winter.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the 2025-26 winter weather outlook for the Chicago area is expected to be impacted by the ongoing La Niña event, with above-average precipitation and equal chances of above or below-average temperatures. It is essential to stay informed about the latest weather forecasts and advisories to prepare for the upcoming winter season.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q: What is La Niña, and how does it affect winter weather?

A: La Niña is a natural climate pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean, causing the jet stream to push northward over the ocean and then sweep back toward the south over the North American continent, funneling storm systems toward the upper Midwest.

Q: How much snow can the Chicago area expect during the 2025-26 winter season?

A: The Chicago area typically sees an average of 7.6 inches of snow in December, 11.3 inches of snow in January, and 10.7 inches of snow in February, according to the National Weather Service.

Q: Will the La Niña pattern last throughout the entire winter season?

A: According to the latest La Niña advisory issued by NOAA, the pattern could persist into February before transitioning back to neutral conditions for the final weeks of winter.

Q: How can I stay informed about the latest winter weather forecasts and advisories?

A: You can stay informed by checking the National Weather Service website, signing up for emergency alerts, and following local news and weather reports.