Friday, October 3, 2025

Bulls’ Chances at the Top Pick in the NBA Draft Lottery

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NBA Draft Lottery

CHICAGO — The last time the ping-pong balls bounced completely in the Bulls’ favor, they landed Derrick Rose.

If they bounce that way again Monday night in Chicago, Cooper Flagg — arguably the best college prospect since Zion Williamson — will almost certainly be a Bull next season.

But that’s highly unlikely to happen.

Sometime around 5 p.m. Monday, locked inside a secure room in Chicago with no way of communicating with the outside world, NBA team executives and others will watch 14 ping-pong balls start to bounce inside a machine during the process known as the NBA Draft Lottery.

The balls will be numbered from 1 through 14. One will be drawn, then a second, then a third, then a fourth. And with that, the people inside that room will find out, an hour or so before the rest of the world, which team won the No. 1 overall pick in next month’s NBA Draft.

That means Flagg — the likely No. 1 pick after spending one college season at Duke — will have a good chance of knowing which city he’ll be calling home next season as soon as the lottery results are announced.

The televised broadcast begins at 6 p.m. Monday on ESPN, when NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum makes the announcement on who won the draft lottery.

What are the Bulls’ chances at No. 1?

Well, they technically do have a chance at winning the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since 2008, when they used it to draft the hometown star Rose.

But it’s more along the lines of Lloyd Christmas’ “So you’re telling me there’s a chance” odds from “Dumb and Dumber.”

The Bulls have just a 1.7% chance of winning the lottery — in other words, the “Cooper Flagg Sweepstakes” — on Monday night. But do you know what their odds were when they won the lottery that landed them Rose?

That’s right: 1.7%.

Where else could the Bulls land?

It’s highly unlikely that history repeats itself Monday night.

The Bulls simply weren’t nearly bad enough this season to increase their odds of landing Flagg. They finished ninth in the Eastern Conference and made the play-in round. Only the Sacramento Kings had a better record than the Bulls among lottery teams.

So if the ping-pong balls bounce strictly according to the odds Monday night, the Bulls would have the No. 12 overall pick.

But they likely won’t bounce that way. Some teams get lucky and some don’t, which is why it’s called the lottery.

So while the Bulls have slim odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, their odds of landing one of the top four picks increase to 8%.

The race for No. 1

Utah, Washington and Charlotte have the best odds to win Monday’s draft lottery, at 14% each.

New Orleans has a 12.5% chance, Philadelphia a 10.5% chance, Brooklyn a 9% chance, Toronto a 7.5% chance and San Antonio a 6.7% chance.

After that, it’s Houston (3.8%), Portland (3.7%), Dallas (1.8%), Chicago (1.7%) and Sacramento (0.8%).

The reason there are 14 lottery spots but only 13 teams with a chance to win the No. 1 pick is because Atlanta’s odds convey to San Antonio, essentially meaning the Spurs are in the lottery twice — with a 6% chance of winning on their own, and an 0.7% chance to win with the Hawks’ combinations of ping-pong balls.

Where teams can finish

Utah can’t finish below fifth, Washington can’t finish below sixth, Charlotte can’t finish below seventh and New Orleans can’t finish below eighth.

Philadelphia would keep the pick should it land in the top six; any other result — only seventh, eighth or ninth would be possible at that point — would send the pick to Oklahoma City.

Brooklyn, Toronto, San Antonio, Houston, Portland, Dallas, Chicago and Sacramento all could move up into the top four as well. They would all have to buck long odds — and in some cases, really long odds — for that to happen. Brooklyn has a 37% chance of getting there; Sacramento only has about a 4% chance.

The rest of the draft order

The lottery only sets the order for the first 14 picks in the draft. The rest of the first-round — picks 15-30 — were determined by regular-season finish, though some of these picks have been traded many times over the years.

The rest of the first-round order, for now, is: Oklahoma City picks No. 15, Orlando No. 16, Minnesota No. 17, Washington No. 18, Brooklyn No. 19 and Miami No. 20.

From there, the final 10 picks in the first round are owned by Utah (21), Atlanta (22), Indiana (23), Oklahoma City (24), Orlando (25), Brooklyn (26 and 27), Boston (28), Phoenix (29) and the Los Angeles Clippers (30).

Conclusion

The NBA Draft Lottery is an exciting event that can change the fate of a team’s future. While the Bulls have a slim chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, they still have a chance to move up in the draft and select a top prospect. The lottery is a reminder that anything can happen in the NBA, and teams must be prepared for any outcome.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the NBA Draft Lottery?

A: The NBA Draft Lottery is a process where 14 teams participate in a random drawing to determine the order of the first 14 picks in the NBA draft.

Q: How are the odds determined?

A: The odds are determined by the team’s record from the previous season. The teams with the worst records have the best odds of winning the No. 1 overall pick.

Q: Can teams trade their picks?

A: Yes, teams can trade their picks, but the trades are subject to certain rules and restrictions.

Q: When is the NBA Draft Lottery?

A: The NBA Draft Lottery typically takes place in May, before the NBA draft.

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