Introduction to Next Winter’s Climate Prediction

AUSTIN, Texas (KXAN) – We’re getting our first look into next winter with the latest Climate Prediction Center ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) Outlook released on Thursday. The ENSO Outlook provides valuable insights into the potential climate patterns that may shape the upcoming winter season.

While currently in a La Niña pattern, we’re expected to return to ENSO Neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) within the next month as sea surface temperatures in the Niño Zones return to near average, away from their cooler-than-normal phase that brought us into La Niña.

ENSO determined by the sea surface temperature anomaly along a portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean

ENSO Neutral means that the water temperatures of the equatorial Pacific Ocean won’t have a predictable impact on the weather pattern here in North America and that we must look at other signals and short or long-term pattern changes to figure out what type of weather we’re likely to see.

That ENSO Neutral pattern, once it develops, is expected to continue through the summer season (June-August). It’s what comes after that drives up curiosity.

Next Winter: Two Options Rise Above

Spring can be a particularly challenging time for forecast accuracy of ENSO with higher confidence in the forecast arriving in the summer. The folks at NOAA refer to this as the “Spring Predictability Barrier” – that is worth keeping in the back of our minds.

Still, the latest ENSO Outlook clearly favors either an ENSO Neutral pattern leading into next winter, or a second La Niña in a row. The lowest odds, ~20%, for a flip toward an El Niño pattern in time for next winter.

ENSO Forecast (NOAA/CPC)

Understanding the Options

The two options, ENSO Neutral and La Niña, have different implications for the upcoming winter season. A neutral pattern wouldn’t really give us much of an indicator about next winter, but a typical La Niña would usually worsen the drought in the south and make for wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest and colder weather in the northern tier of the country.

El Niño winters, on the other hand, typically bring the Pacific jet stream into the southern tier of states helping to guide storms (and precipitation) more frequently through those areas.

El Niño pattern

If We Ruled Out El Niño Next Winter…

While it’s too early to guarantee El Niño won’t return next winter (2025-2026), if we ruled it out, then parts of the country that are continuing to see expanding drought like the Southwest, South and parts of the Southeast shouldn’t expect next winter to give them the typically wetter winter weather that often helps to ease those conditions.

Drought monitor latest

This could have significant implications for these regions, as they may need to prepare for continued dry conditions and potential water shortages.

What Remains…

That leaves two options as the prime contenders for a guide to next winter: La Niña or ENSO Neutral. A neutral pattern wouldn’t really give us much of an indicator about next winter, but a typical La Niña would usually worsen the drought in the south and make for wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest and colder weather in the northern tier of the country.

Overall climate pattern La Niña

Once we get past the “Spring Predictability Barrier” and reach meteorological summer, our confidence in the phase of ENSO for this coming winter should go up.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the latest ENSO Outlook provides us with two potential options for next winter: La Niña or ENSO Neutral. While it’s still too early to predict with certainty, understanding these options and their implications can help us prepare for the upcoming winter season.

As we move past the “Spring Predictability Barrier” and into meteorological summer, we can expect our confidence in the phase of ENSO to increase, providing us with a clearer picture of what to expect next winter.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is ENSO and how does it affect the weather?

A: ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is a natural climate pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean and affects the weather worldwide. It is characterized by fluctuations in the surface temperature of the ocean and can have significant impacts on precipitation and temperature patterns.

Q: What is the difference between El Niño and La Niña?

A: El Niño and La Niña are two phases of the ENSO cycle. El Niño occurs when the surface temperature of the ocean is warmer than average, while La Niña occurs when it is cooler than average. These phases can have different impacts on the weather, with El Niño typically bringing wetter conditions to the southern United States and La Niña bringing drier conditions.

Q: How accurate are ENSO forecasts?

A: ENSO forecasts are generally more accurate during the summer months, after the “Spring Predictability Barrier” has passed. However, there is still some uncertainty associated with these forecasts, and it’s essential to stay up to date with the latest information to get the most accurate predictions.